Iraq
Given that we are less than two months from the Iraqi elections, it may be time to look at a federalist approach to rebuilding Iraq. Why and what would this entail?
History tells us that over the last 80 or so years; Iraq has had only limited success in existing with a central government responsible for the Kurd, Sunni Arab, and Shi’a populations. In preparing for the upcoming elections, the Iraqi government has attempted to formulate a means by which all the primary ethnic or religious groups are both represented and secure in their confidence that Baghdad will represent the interest of them all. This is particular difficult to accomplish given the Sunni resistance to the elections, and the distrust all living Iraqi’s have for central authority, after Saddam Hussein’s reign that distrust is easy to understand.
The Kurds have effectively been self-governing for some number of years post the 1991 Gulf War and the limitations placed on Saddam’s governments reach into the Kurd areas of Iraq. The Shi’a majority, primarily in the southern areas of Iraq, has shown increasing effectiveness in managing their more anti-American political dissidents and their terrorist elements. Additionally, they have acted to distance themselves from the Iranian Mullahs for a number of months and present an alternative to not only Iraqi Shi’a but to Shi’a Muslims throughout the world who oppose the Mullah's Islamo-fascist hold over Iran and the Shi’a brethren worldwide.
This presents the current government of Iyad Allawi with a challenge in the Sunni minority, which has expressed both contempt for the new Free Iraq and a continued racial, ethnic and religious bigotry more generally associated with islamo-fascism. The Sunni seem most opposed to a minority position in government, a given due to their views and population, and the generally expected ethnic and religious party line voting expected in Iraq.
Should Iraq formally establish states representing the historical and ethnic separation found in their population, and permit Kurd and Shi’a Iraq states to continue their advance from the conditions left by Saddam and the war to end his regime, and in doing so isolate the third state, primarily Sunni Arab central/western Iraq, to limited self-governance until political parties, participation, and security are more fully established. Additionally, this would curtail the central government’s role to national security and securing civil liberties (both economic, property, and religious) where it is likely to be most effective.
The original concern that prevented such a plan appears to have been the increased likelihood of a divided Iraq, civil war and interventions by neighboring nations, each concern being addressed through the strong central governments military and economic oversight and guidance, and the support of the world as needed for any Iraqi government seeking to rebuild from decades of abuse and turmoil.
Is it worth a shot or would it only stiffen Sunni dissidence? (More details and data to support or oppose the idea will be posted as time and computing resources permit.)
